Labour: What to do what to do!?

I see a couple of scenarios for Labour, and neither is that promising.

Scenario 1

They enter a coalition government with Fine Gael in which case they will probably end up compromising on what are supposed to be their founding principles - all in the name of 'the recovery'. In return they will take much of the flack - which junior coalition members generally end up with - as the new government oversees the cuts demanded by the IMF and the EU. 

Labour, in this role, will scupper the only chance for consolidating left-right politics in Ireland. In case it hasn't been drummed home enough yet: Fianna Fail and Fianna Gael represent the same side of the coin - they are both right-wing parties.

With one in government and the other in opposition, more or less since Ireland first won its independence, there has been no proper policy debate, and in the last 20 years, no one representing any alternative to neo-liberalism has been capable of grabbing the electorate's imagination.

With Labour undoubtedly compromising so much to provide a ‘national’ government with Fine Gael, and with Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and the independents so seriously out numbered, there is no real chance that a left-right discourse might become the new fulcrum for policy debate. 

Labour will end up seat-less like the Greens. Ireland will be consigned to a perpetually self-defeating political debate. Fianna Fail will emerge rejuvenated on the back of Fianna Gael’s inability to produce any useful changes. At the next elections they will oppose all each of Fine Gael’s TDs vehemently, but not their core principles. And we might just fall for it, again. 

Scenario 2

Labour refuses to join in a national government and chooses instead to buttress the chorus of real opposition in the Dail. Along with Sinn Fein and ULA, they might just manage to construct a new and sturdy foundation for left-wing politics in Ireland.

Fine Gael will drum up enough support among independents to form a government but genuine alternatives presented by an ideologically coherent opposition will attract curious new voters. FF will be drowned out and lose their grip on family politics forever! Fine Gael will be exposed as Fianna Fail in different suits - and presiding as such over some very hard times for Ireland, will soon lose the support of the electorate.

Whether or not Labour join the coalition the policy outcome is likely to remain the same - Enda Kenny says he will attempt to negotiate lower lending rates for Ireland, but having already helped FF to pass the IMF-drafted budget through the parliament, FG have no intention of trying to renegotiate these basic conditions.

There are no plans for any major soul-searching for the new Irish government. The next few years will not be easy, for any one. But Fine Gael’s true colours will have shone through – they will attempt to clean up Fianna Fail’s mess with even less useful policies than Fianna Fail came up with.

When they are finally voted out they will have no choice but to join with the remaining Fianna Fail TDs just to survive in numbers. Ireland will join the rest of Europe and make choices between mainstream left and right parties. We may even start by asking not what can we do for the economy but what can the economy do for us! The answers should then be at least some way discernable between real alternatives.

This is unlikely to happen however. As with the Greens and their fatal headfirst dive into coalition with Fianna Fail in 2008, it’s just too tantalizing. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore already sees his role as tempering the policies of FG and his enthusiasm for coalition has been palpable throughout the electoral campaign.

He needs to ask himself, however: did John Gormley ever really temper the decisions of Fianna Fail? He may have if he had known about any of them in advance, you might say! But what happened to the Progressive Democrats after their coalition with FF, what happened to the Greens? The phrase complete decimation is not an exaggeration here. While it is probable that Labour members would become extremely frustrated at another term on opposition benches, and while they would need to work on convincing many people they are not just a protest party, Labour needs to seriously consider not going into coalition.